Culture Arbitrage

Live Qloo data

Your city’s next hit is already open somewhere else.

Pick a city. Every number links to the source it came from.

  1. Find taste twins
  2. Count the gap
  3. Try to prove it wrong

About 1–2 minutes, at most 40 Qloo calls. See an example result ↓

TokyoNew YorkSeoulMalatang, via Seoul and K-popTaipeiBoba, 2013–2019

How trends travel

Trends travel between cities.

Taiwanese bubble-tea chains opened in Tokyo from 2013; by 2019 “tapiru” was a buzzword of the year. Malatang reached Japan’s Gen Z by way of Seoul and K-pop. The demand was visible somewhere else first.
  • Taste twin (Qloo)
  • Could travel this way
  • Real gap, but fading
  • Past trend

How it works

Planned by Claude
  1. 1

    Profile the neighbourhoods

    What do the people of each neighbourhood love?

    Show request

    /v2/insights filter.type=urn:tag signal.location.query

  2. 2

    Find taste twins

    Which neighbourhoods in other cities are loved by people with the same tastes?

    Show request

    urn:entity:locality signal.interests.entities (the home neighbourhood), then the taste tags each locality shares with it

  3. 3

    Compare supply

    Count places per category within 2.5 km of each neighbourhood’s centre, the same area on both sides.

    Show request

    urn:entity:place filter.tags filter.location filter.location.radius

  4. 4

    Doubt every gap

    Does the rest of the city already have it? Do the category’s fans match the people who live here? Is interest fading? With a key, does Google Maps see the same gap?

    Show request

    urn:demographics, urn:entity:place filter.tags, /v2/trending (not available for places); Tokyo ward statistics; Google Maps (cross-check only)

  5. 5

    Score

    Six scores and a confidence, computed in code from the answers above.

    Show request

    no extra calls

Why this exists

Bubble tea and malatang both took off in Japan years after they were proven elsewhere. Big chains pay for research to see gaps like these early; small founders can’t. Culture Arbitrage closes that information gap with Qloo’s taste data.

Who it’s for: independent founders, franchise scouts, landlords, local economic-development teams.

Checking one business

Already know what you want to open? Type it under the question (“yoga studio”, “ramen shop”, “瑜伽”) and the agent checks only that: which neighbourhoods are short of it compared with their taste twins.

The list holds 176 business types, kept because Qloo lists at least 5 of each in at least two of the three cities (counted 2026-10-25). Anything else is matched to a place category with Qloo’s tag search first, and the log shows what it was matched to.

Six scores and the confidence
ScoreSourceHow it’s computed
Proven elsewhereQloomin(1, places in twin ÷ 15)
Bridge audienceQlooshare of Qloo taste tags the two neighbourhoods have in common ÷ 0.5, max 1
Core audience fitQloo + Tokyo ward statisticsdo the category’s fans (Qloo) and the people here lean to the same age bands? In Tokyo, the residents (ward statistics); elsewhere, fans of the neighbourhood’s top tastes (Qloo). Correlation, mapped to 0–1
Local undersupplyQloo(twin − here) ÷ twin, × 0.6 if more than 20 exist city-wide
Product fitLLM judgmentClaude, 0–1; not counted when pending
DurabilityQloo0.5 + 12-month change in /v2/trending, clamped 0–1; not measurable for places on live data, so not counted

Confidence = average of the measured scores × (1 − 0.05 × open doubts, at most 0.4 off). Below 55%, the agent rules the idea out: it stays on screen greyed out, with the reasons, and is not counted as an opportunity.

With or without Claude

With Claude, the same tools are offered to the model, which decides the order, skips dead ends and writes the summary. Without it, a fixed pipeline runs the steps in order. Either way, every Qloo call is capped per run and logged.

What the agent can’t know
  • A place missing from Qloo may be missing from the index, not from the street. The city-wide check and the thin-data flag catch some of these cases, not all.
  • Results are a snapshot of today’s taste data, not a historical backtest.
  • Boba and malatang are survivors. Tapioca shows a real gap can fade, which is why Durability is scored.
  • Similarity is between audiences, not streets. Rent, regulation and footfall are out of scope.

Example from a recorded run in Tokyo (all categories, 2026-10-24, live Qloo data)

2 opportunities from 24 of 40 Qloo calls

Strongest opportunity

Bagel shop: Manhattan to Shibuya-ku

New York to Tokyo, about 10,800 km apart

Shibuya-ku has 1 bagel shop while its taste twin Manhattan (similarity 0.69, 56 shared tastes) has 38 in the sample, a gap of about 38 times. Tokyo as a whole has only 15 bagel shops, so the category is scarce citywide, not just locally.

Written by Claude

61%

Promising

How 61% is worked out

Average of 5 of 6 scores (71.4) × doubt penalty 0.85 (3 doubts) ≈ 61%. The line marks 55%: below it an idea is ruled out.

Evidence chain

  1. Shibuya-ku and Manhattan share these Qloo tastes:

    Tourist DestinationTrendyArt Enthusiasts
    Q7
  2. 35%
    of taste tags shared (56 of 162), #1 in New York
    Q7
  3. −37+

    bagel shop places missing in Shibuya-ku

    Manhattan, New York38+
    Shibuya-ku, Tokyo1 (37+ missing)
    All of Tokyo15 places
    What the dots mean

    Each dot is one place Qloo returned with this tag. Hollow dots are the empty storefronts: places Manhattan has that Shibuya-ku doesn’t.

    Q12Q13
  4. 15
    across all of Tokyo
    Q14
  5. 31%
    age match, fans vs residents

    residents of Shibuya ward (Tokyo resident register, 2026-01-01)

    Q17
  6. —
    trend not measurable for placesQloo's trend data covers artists, brands, films and TV, not places
  7. 60
    LLM judgment product fit: “Bagels are photogenic, easy to customise with toppings, and cheap to open as a small counter-service shop that suits solo visitors.”

Numbers link to their source on the right; other sources are named.

The agent tried to prove itself wrong.

How the score moved, check by check
  1. Gap found: at least 38 in Manhattan, 1 in Shibuya-kuQ12Q1389%
  2. Checked the rest of Tokyo: 15 placesQ14−584%
  3. Checked who it is for: 31% age matchQ17−1371%
  4. Final score, with product fit 60%, 2 doubts of its own−1061%

Doubts still standing (3)

  • ?Bagel fans skew female and 55+ (positive 55+ and 45-54 affinity), while Shibuya-ku residents lean toward 35-44 and 45-54, so the core audience is only a partial match.
  • ?The New York count is from a capped sample, so the true twin count may differ.
  • ?15 exist elsewhere in Tokyo, so the gap may be local only.

Together they multiply the average score by 0.85.

Six scores

  • Proven elsewhere100
  • Bridge audience69
  • Core audience fit31
  • Local undersupply97
  • Product fit60
  • Durability—
What each score means
  1. Proven elsewhere Qloo

    at least 38 places in Manhattan. 15 or more places = 100.

    Q13
  2. Bridge audience Qloo

    35% of Qloo taste tags shared by Shibuya-ku and Manhattan (half shared counts as a full match). Measured as the shared-taste score: the share of Qloo taste tags both neighbourhoods have, ÷ 0.5, max 1. Cross-interest bridges (like K-pop → malatang) are not measured yet.

    Q7
  3. Core audience fit Qloo

    Age profile of the category's fans vs residents of Shibuya ward (Tokyo resident register, 2026-01-01). Age overlap only; gender is not used yet.

    Q17
  4. Local undersupply Qloo

    1 in Shibuya-ku vs at least 38 in Manhattan, 15 across Tokyo. Reduced when the whole city already has more than 20.

    Q12Q13Q14
  5. Product fit LLM judgment

    Bagels are photogenic, easy to customise with toppings, and cheap to open as a small counter-service shop that suits solo visitors. Claude’s judgment: photogenic, customisable, health image, solo-friendly, cheap to open. Not Qloo data. Included in confidence.

  6. Durability Pending

    Not measurable: Qloo's trend data covers artists, brands, films and TV, not places. Bubble tea in Japan is the warning case: a real gap that faded. Not counted in confidence.

    not fetched

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