Strongest opportunity
Bagel shop: Manhattan to Shibuya-ku
New York to Tokyo, about 10,800 km apart
Shibuya-ku has 1 bagel shop while its taste twin Manhattan (similarity 0.69, 56 shared tastes) has 38 in the sample, a gap of about 38 times. Tokyo as a whole has only 15 bagel shops, so the category is scarce citywide, not just locally.
Written by Claude
61%
Promising
How 61% is worked out
Average of 5 of 6 scores (71.4) × doubt penalty 0.85 (3 doubts) ≈ 61%. The line marks 55%: below it an idea is ruled out.
Evidence chain
- Q7
Shibuya-ku and Manhattan share these Qloo tastes:
Tourist DestinationTrendyArt Enthusiasts - 35%of taste tags shared (56 of 162), #1 in New YorkQ7
- −37+Q12Q13
bagel shop places missing in Shibuya-ku
Manhattan, New York38+Shibuya-ku, Tokyo1 (37+ missing)All of Tokyo15 placesWhat the dots mean
Each dot is one place Qloo returned with this tag. Hollow dots are the empty storefronts: places Manhattan has that Shibuya-ku doesn’t.
- 15across all of TokyoQ14
- 31%Q17age match, fans vs residents
residents of Shibuya ward (Tokyo resident register, 2026-01-01)
- —trend not measurable for placesQloo's trend data covers artists, brands, films and TV, not places
- 60LLM judgment product fit: “Bagels are photogenic, easy to customise with toppings, and cheap to open as a small counter-service shop that suits solo visitors.”
Numbers link to their source on the right; other sources are named.
The agent tried to prove itself wrong.
How the score moved, check by check
- Gap found: at least 38 in Manhattan, 1 in Shibuya-kuQ12Q1389%
- Checked the rest of Tokyo: 15 placesQ14−584%
- Checked who it is for: 31% age matchQ17−1371%
- Final score, with product fit 60%, 2 doubts of its own−1061%
Doubts still standing (3)
- ?Bagel fans skew female and 55+ (positive 55+ and 45-54 affinity), while Shibuya-ku residents lean toward 35-44 and 45-54, so the core audience is only a partial match.
- ?The New York count is from a capped sample, so the true twin count may differ.
- ?15 exist elsewhere in Tokyo, so the gap may be local only.
Together they multiply the average score by 0.85.
Six scores
- Proven elsewhere100
- Bridge audience69
- Core audience fit31
- Local undersupply97
- Product fit60
- Durability—
What each score means
- Q13
Proven elsewhere Qloo
at least 38 places in Manhattan. 15 or more places = 100.
- Q7
Bridge audience Qloo
35% of Qloo taste tags shared by Shibuya-ku and Manhattan (half shared counts as a full match). Measured as the shared-taste score: the share of Qloo taste tags both neighbourhoods have, ÷ 0.5, max 1. Cross-interest bridges (like K-pop → malatang) are not measured yet.
- Q17
Core audience fit Qloo
Age profile of the category's fans vs residents of Shibuya ward (Tokyo resident register, 2026-01-01). Age overlap only; gender is not used yet.
- Q12Q13Q14
Local undersupply Qloo
1 in Shibuya-ku vs at least 38 in Manhattan, 15 across Tokyo. Reduced when the whole city already has more than 20.
Product fit LLM judgment
Bagels are photogenic, easy to customise with toppings, and cheap to open as a small counter-service shop that suits solo visitors. Claude’s judgment: photogenic, customisable, health image, solo-friendly, cheap to open. Not Qloo data. Included in confidence.
- not fetched
Durability Pending
Not measurable: Qloo's trend data covers artists, brands, films and TV, not places. Bubble tea in Japan is the warning case: a real gap that faded. Not counted in confidence.